ES Analysis Archive

Sunday evening Globex open. ES opened at 5,382, slightly above Friday's close. No significant gap. Asian markets were mixed with Nikkei -0.3% and Hang Seng +0.4%. European futures pointing marginally higher. The overnight session is typically low volume -- no need to trade until the London session or US pre-market.

Weekend analysis session. Markets are closed but Globex futures open Sunday evening. Last week saw ES drop 47 points from Tuesday's high to Friday's close, driven by the hawkish FOMC. The weekly chart shows a bearish engulfing candle. Key question for next week: does the 200-day EMA at 5,375 hold, or do we test 5,340?

Post-FOMC follow-through selling continued overnight, but ES found a floor at the 5,375 level -- the 200-day EMA. A morning bounce attempt reached 5,410 before sellers reasserted control. Quad-witching expiration today is adding chop with massive options and futures expiry. Expect erratic price action until 4:00 PM.

FOMC day. The Fed held rates steady as expected but the dot plot shifted hawkish, signaling only one cut for 2026 instead of two. ES whipsawed 45 points in 10 minutes after the 2:00 PM statement, then settled lower. Powell's press conference at 2:30 PM added selling pressure when he emphasized "patience" on rate cuts. ES closed near the lows at 5,398.

ES pushed through resistance at 5,445 in the morning session, driven by strong housing starts data. The breakout has legs -- volume confirmed the move with 1.3x average participation. The market is now testing the 5,460 area, which aligns with the March 10 swing high. Sellers may step in here.

ES opened slightly lower on mixed economic signals from last week. The market is consolidating near the 5,420 level after last week's rally. Institutional order flow is balanced, with no clear directional bias in the first hour. Volume is below average, typical for the start of a quad-witching week.