Market Analysis Archive

Monday opens with ES testing the 5,390 level after a quiet Sunday session. PMI flash data at 9:45 AM will be the first real catalyst. The market is in a short-term downtrend from last week's FOMC reaction but oversold on the 4-hour RSI (32). A bounce attempt is likely if the 5,375 support holds. Bears need a close below 5,370 to confirm continuation.

Monday morning. NQ is trading at 18,760, slightly above the Sunday open. Flash PMI at 9:45 AM is the morning catalyst. The market is positioned defensively ahead of Mag-7 earnings starting Tuesday. NQ is oversold on the 4-hour chart (RSI 28) and a mean-reversion bounce toward 18,880 is probable if PMI data cooperates.

Monday morning. EUR/USD is trading at 1.0775 after a slightly better-than-expected German IFO report (88.3 vs 87.8). The euro got a small lift but the post-FOMC dollar strength is the dominant force. The pair is in a tight 1.0760-1.0800 range. US Flash PMI at 9:45 AM will be the next catalyst.

Monday morning. Gold is at $2,142, slightly bid on continued Asian physical demand. US Flash PMI at 9:45 AM will impact gold through the dollar channel -- weak PMI = weak dollar = gold higher. The $2,125 support is still the key level. A test of $2,155 resistance is likely if PMI disappoints.

Monday morning. Oil is at $77.90, range-bound ahead of this week's OPEC+ meeting on Thursday. The market is waiting for pre-meeting signals from Saudi Arabia and Russia. Flash PMI at 9:45 AM could impact oil through the demand lens -- weak PMI = weaker demand expectations.

Monday morning. XAU/USD is at $2,140, bid on Asian demand. The pair is recovering from last week's FOMC selloff. US Flash PMI at 9:45 AM will drive the dollar, which drives gold. A weak PMI is bullish for gold (weaker dollar). The $2,125 support has held twice -- the double bottom pattern is intact.