CL Analysis Archive

Sunday evening. CL opened at $77.80, slightly above Friday's close. No significant overnight developments. Middle East headlines remain status quo. Thin liquidity typical of Sunday Globex.

Weekend analysis. Oil dropped $1.10 on the week, from $78.80 to $77.70. The FOMC dollar strength overwhelmed the bullish inventory data. The weekly chart shows a bearish reversal from the $80 resistance. OPEC+ meeting next week is the key event.

Oil bounced from $77.20 to $78.10 as the post-FOMC dollar rally paused. OPEC+ headlines about maintaining production cuts provided support. However, the rally lacks conviction with below-average volume. Quad-witching expiration adds noise.

Oil dropped $1.80 to $77.50 on the hawkish FOMC. The dollar surge overwhelmed the bullish inventory data. The $80 breakout attempt failed decisively. Oil is now testing the $77.50 support level, which is the 20-day MA. The demand outlook is also questioned as higher rates pressure economic growth.

Crude rallied to $79.10 after the API report showed a larger-than-expected inventory draw of 3.2M barrels. The move confirms the bullish thesis. EIA official data at 10:30 AM today will either confirm or reverse the API signal. Oil is approaching the $80 resistance.

WTI crude oil is trading at $78.40, supported by OPEC+ production cut expectations and Middle East supply concerns. The API inventory report after the close will be the next catalyst. Oil is in a bullish trend on the daily chart, making higher lows since February.