ES -- March 21, 2026
BEARISHE-mini S&P 500 -- CME
How To Use This Archived Analysis
Use this page during review when you need a structured read on levels, event risk, and the specific mistakes this market snapshot could trigger for prop-firm traders.
What This Page Will Not Do
This analysis is not a trade signal and it does not know your live account state, size, or psychology. Use it as context and risk framing, not as an instruction to enter.
Summary
Post-FOMC follow-through selling continued overnight, but ES found a floor at the 5,375 level -- the 200-day EMA. A morning bounce attempt reached 5,410 before sellers reasserted control. Quad-witching expiration today is adding chop with massive options and futures expiry. Expect erratic price action until 4:00 PM.
Trading Notes
Quad-witching expiration creates unpredictable order flow. Pin risk around major strike prices (5,400, 5,375).
The 5,375 level is critical. A close below opens the door to 5,340 (100-day moving average).
End-of-week position squaring may create a short-covering rally in the last hour. Do not mistake this for a trend reversal.
Volume will spike dramatically at 3:00-4:00 PM due to expiration. Spreads may widen.
Prop Firm Warnings
Quad-witching + post-FOMC = maximum danger. Both TopStep and Apex have seen elevated account terminations on quad-witching Fridays.
If you traded through FOMC yesterday and are down, do not try to recover today. Let the weekend reset your psychology.
FundedNext consistency rule: a large win today after yesterday's loss could flag you. Keep position sizes consistent.
Consider this a no-trade day if you are within 40% of your maximum drawdown.
Suggested Strategy
Strongly consider not trading. If you must, scalp only with 50% reduced position size. Use the 5,375 support and 5,410 resistance as boundaries for mean-reversion trades only. Take profits quickly -- do not hold through the 3:00-4:00 PM expiration window.
News Impact
| Event | Impact | Time |
|---|---|---|
| Quad Witching Expiration | high | All day (heaviest 3-4 PM ET) |
| Existing Home Sales | low | 10:00 AM ET |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R1 | 5,445.00 |
| R2 | 5,425.00 |
| R3 | 5,410.00 |
| PIVOT | 5,392.00 |
| S1 | 5,375.00 |
| S2 | 5,360.00 |
| S3 | 5,340.00 |
Risk Level
high
This analysis is AI-generated for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always follow your prop firm's specific rules and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making trading decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.