ES -- March 24, 2026
NEUTRALE-mini S&P 500 -- CME
How To Use This Archived Analysis
Use this page during review when you need a structured read on levels, event risk, and the specific mistakes this market snapshot could trigger for prop-firm traders.
What This Page Will Not Do
This analysis is not a trade signal and it does not know your live account state, size, or psychology. Use it as context and risk framing, not as an instruction to enter.
Summary
Monday opens with ES testing the 5,390 level after a quiet Sunday session. PMI flash data at 9:45 AM will be the first real catalyst. The market is in a short-term downtrend from last week's FOMC reaction but oversold on the 4-hour RSI (32). A bounce attempt is likely if the 5,375 support holds. Bears need a close below 5,370 to confirm continuation.
Trading Notes
4-hour RSI at 32 suggests oversold conditions. Bounces from support levels have higher probability.
Flash PMI at 9:45 AM ET is the key data point. A miss below 50 (contraction) would accelerate the selloff.
The gap between Friday's close (5,380) and Monday's expected open (5,390) may fill early. Watch for a gap-fill trade.
Above 5,408, shorts should cover. This would indicate the post-FOMC selloff is exhausted.
Prop Firm Warnings
Start of a new trading week -- treat it as a fresh start. Do not carry psychological baggage from last week's FOMC losses.
If you lost more than 2% last week, reduce today's position size by 50% as a circuit breaker.
Apex trailing drawdown: your high-water mark locked in at last week's peak. You have less room than you think.
FTMO minimum trading days: if you need 4 days this period, make sure today counts. Place at least one trade with proper risk management.
Suggested Strategy
Wait for 9:45 AM PMI data before establishing positions. If PMI is above 50, buy a pullback to 5,388-5,392 with a stop at 5,372 and target 5,425. If PMI misses, short a rally to 5,400-5,408 with a stop at 5,418 and target 5,360. Risk 1% max.
News Impact
| Event | Impact | Time |
|---|---|---|
| S&P Global Flash PMI (Manufacturing + Services) | high | 9:45 AM ET |
| New Home Sales | medium | 10:00 AM ET |
Key Levels
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| R1 | 5,445.00 |
| R2 | 5,425.00 |
| R3 | 5,408.00 |
| PIVOT | 5,392.00 |
| S1 | 5,375.00 |
| S2 | 5,358.00 |
| S3 | 5,340.00 |
Risk Level
moderate
This analysis is AI-generated for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice. Always follow your prop firm's specific rules and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making trading decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.