NQ 15min Challenge
Past challenge from 2026-03-30. See the correct answer and explanation below.
SCENARIO
NQ is at 19,600. After 3 red days, price has finally broken below the 200-day moving average (at 19,650) for the first time in 4 months. The 200 DMA had been support on 5 previous tests this year. Volume on the breakdown was the highest of the month. Price attempted a retest of 19,650 and was rejected sharply.
Market Context
Major tech company announced a significant revenue miss after hours yesterday. Sector ETFs are seeing heavy outflows. The VIX is at 25, up from 15 a week ago.
Key Levels
A loss of the 200 DMA after 4 months of support, on the highest volume of the month, with a failed retest -- this is a major technical event. The fundamental catalyst (big tech earnings miss) and rising VIX confirm the shift in market character from buy-the-dip to sell-the-rally. Short on the failed retest of 19,650 with a stop at 19,680 (above the 200 DMA) targeting 19,500 (August low). R:R is approximately 1:1.25. This is a trend change trade, not a scalp.
Prop Firm Implications
Major trend changes are when TopStep accounts get funded. This is the type of high-conviction trade that justifies holding for the full target.
If you are already short from higher up, this is a confirmation to trail your stop, not add to the position. FTMO daily loss limits still apply even when you are right.