ES 5min Challenge
Past challenge from 2026-03-29. See the correct answer and explanation below.
SCENARIO
ES is at 5,470. FOMC rate decision in 10 minutes. Price has been chopping in a 15-point range (5,460-5,475) for the past hour as traders position ahead of the announcement. Bid-ask spread is slightly wider than normal. Volume is building.
Market Context
Markets expect a 25bp cut. Dot plot and Powell press conference follow 30 minutes after the decision. ES historically moves 50-80 points in both directions during FOMC announcements before settling.
Key Levels
Trading 10 minutes before an FOMC decision is not strategy -- it is a coin flip with leveraged consequences. The initial reaction is often a fake-out (the first 50+ point move reverses after Powell speaks). Wide spreads mean worse fills. Even if you guess the direction correctly, the whipsaw can stop you out before the real move happens. Best practice: close positions 30 minutes before FOMC, wait for the dust to settle (30-60 min after Powell), then trade the established direction.
Prop Firm Implications
FTMO data shows that 40% of daily loss limit breaches happen on FOMC days. The simplest way to protect your account is to sit out the announcement entirely.
Apex trailing drawdown is ruthless during FOMC whipsaws. A 50-point spike followed by a 80-point reversal will set your drawdown at the spike level and then hit it on the reversal.