ES 15min Challenge
Past challenge from 2026-03-23. See the correct answer and explanation below.
SCENARIO
ES is at 5,460. It gapped down 30 points from yesterday's close at 5,490. The gap has not filled. Price tried to rally to fill the gap but failed at 5,475 (the declining 20 EMA) twice. Each failure came on decreasing volume. The last candle is a bearish engulfing that broke below the post-open low of 5,455.
Market Context
Overnight futures sold off on news of new tariffs. Pre-market sentiment is firmly bearish. The daily chart shows this gap puts price below the 50-day MA for the first time in 6 weeks.
Key Levels
An unfilled gap, failed gap-fill attempts at the declining EMA, and a break below the session low create a high-probability continuation short. The bearish macro catalyst (tariffs) and loss of the 50-day MA confirm the bearish thesis. Short below 5,455 with a stop at 5,480 (above the failed gap-fill attempts and EMA) targeting 5,430 (next daily support). R:R is 1:1. Gaps that do not fill in the first 2 hours tend to extend.
Prop Firm Implications
Gap-and-go short setups are clean entries for TopStep accounts because the invalidation level (gap fill) is crystal clear.