ES 1H Challenge
Past challenge from 2026-03-20. See the correct answer and explanation below.
SCENARIO
ES is at 5,450. It is testing a major weekly support level that has held 4 times over the past 3 months. Price has formed a triple bottom at 5,440 on the 1H chart. RSI(14) is at 32 with a bullish divergence (price at equal lows, RSI at higher lows). A morning star candlestick pattern is forming.
Market Context
End of quarter. Institutional rebalancing expected. The daily trend is in a correction, but the weekly trend is still up. Seasonal data shows Q2 starts are historically bullish.
Key Levels
Triple bottom at major weekly support with RSI bullish divergence and a morning star pattern is about as high-conviction as reversal setups get. The weekly uptrend and seasonal tailwinds add further confluence. Enter long at 5,450 with a stop at 5,430 (below the triple bottom and weekly support) targeting 5,480 first, then 5,500 (daily 20 EMA). Risk 20 points to gain 30-50. If weekly support breaks, the setup is invalidated -- no heroics.
Prop Firm Implications
The tight 20-point stop makes this ideal for TopStep accounts. If the triple bottom fails, you lose minimal drawdown and know the thesis is wrong.