ES 15min Challenge
Past challenge from 2026-03-11. See the correct answer and explanation below.
SCENARIO
ES is at 5,350. It has dropped 80 points from the open (5,430) in a near-vertical move. Three consecutive large red candles with no bounces. RSI(14) is at 15. Price is now at a major daily support level (5,350) that held twice in the past month. A small green candle (spinning top) just printed.
Market Context
CPI data came in hot this morning (0.4% vs 0.2% expected). Fed rate cut expectations are being repriced. All sectors are red. VIX spiked from 15 to 22.
Key Levels
Catching a falling knife after a hot CPI print is one of the fastest ways to blow a prop firm account. Yes, RSI is oversold and price is at support, but macro-driven moves do not respect technical levels. The VIX spike shows genuine fear, not a normal pullback. Wait for a base to form (30-60 min minimum of consolidation) before considering any long. If you must trade, consider a short on any weak bounce back to VWAP.
Prop Firm Implications
CPI days are responsible for more TopStep account failures than any other single event. Consider sitting out entirely.
Apex trailing drawdown would lock in the worst level if you take a bounce trade that fails. One bad entry on CPI day can end your evaluation.